Nobel Laureate David Gross Warns Nuclear War Risk Has Doubled

David Gross, who won the Nobel Prize in Physics in 2004, has warned that the probability of nuclear war each year is now roughly twice the level he estimates for the Cold War.

Gross puts the current annual risk at around 2%, compared with about 1% during the Cold War. He argues that the increase substantially worsens humanity’s chances of surviving the next half-century.

Among the factors behind his warning are the presence of nine nuclear-armed countries, the erosion of arms-control agreements and the development of hypersonic weapons. The figures represent Gross’s assessment of the risk.