1960 Population Model’s ‘Doomsday’ Date Nears, but UN Outlook Differs

A population-growth model published in Science in 1960 became associated with an unusual deadline: Nov. 13, 2026. Mathematician Heinz von Foerster and his colleagues developed the model, which was later linked to an overpopulation “doomsday.”

The date reflected a mathematical singularity, where the model’s projected population rose toward infinity. That result described the behavior of the calculation, rather than establishing a literal end-of-the-world event.

With the global population at roughly 8.3 billion in 2025, current United Nations projections present a different outlook. They anticipate an eventual population peak rather than the unlimited growth implied by the older model.