JPMorgan Chase CEO (JPM) Jamie Dimon is one big Wall Street figure who isn’t that concerned about what the Federal Reserve does at the end of its policy meeting Wednesday.
Whether the central bank cuts its benchmark rate by a smaller 25 basis points or a bigger 50 basis points, “it’s not going to be earth shattering,” the boss of the biggest US bank said Tuesday at a conference hosted by Georgetown University’s Psaros Center for Financial Markets and Policy. “It doesn’t mean that much.”
When the Fed lowers or raises rates, he added, “it’s a minor thing,” explaining that “underneath that, there’s a real economy.”
Dimon, though, did say he supports the Fed’s easing of monetary policy and the central bank’s chairman, Jerome Powell.
“I think they need to do it,” he said. “And I think that Jay Powell does do a great job.”
Dimon has been warning for some time that the US economy could be more vulnerable than some market observers think, having voiced concerns about a potential stagflationary environment where inflation remains elevated and some rates surge to 7% as the labor market weakens.
“I am not sure if the world is prepared for 7%,” he said at a conference in India a year ago
As recently as August he said he was still “a little bit skeptical” that the inflation rate falls back to the Fed’s 2% target. He also said then that the odds of a recession still happening were better than the chance of a no recession.
The coming rate cuts, however, will in fact have an effect on the bank.
Last week JPMorgan Chief Operating Officer Daniel Pinto alarmed investors when he said the that the consensus view among analysts that the bank would earn $94 billion in 2025 was “a bit too optimistic” due partly to the effect of falling rates.
While admitting the bank’s financial projections for next year weren’t complete, Pinto said JPMorgan was guiding for expenses to run higher in light of inflation and some other investments while its biggest profit driver, net interest income, looked to be lower due to falling rates.
Net interest income measures the difference between what banks earn on their assets (loans and securities) and pay out on their deposits.
JPMorgan’s stock fell the most intraday since 2020 following Pinto’s comments. It was also down slightly Wednesday.
Year to date, the stock is still up over 20%.
Dimon, while speaking Tuesday, also did not hold back when blasting bank regulators over a new set of capital rules designed to protect lenders against future losses, even after a top Fed official last week scaled back a new version of those rules.
Big banks like JPMorgan and Bank of America (BAC) now would have to increase capital levels by 9% in aggregate. That is down by half from the original plan from more than a year ago, which set the capital increase to around 19% for those institutions.
“It’s been going for 10 years. I would have got it done in six months. I find it unbelievable,” Dimon said.
But big banks still are waiting until the Fed releases the full proposal, which is expected to be hundreds of pages of revisions to the original 1,000 page document along with a quantitative impact assessment.
“I don’t care about relief. I want the work to be done properly. That’s it, an honest assessment, and even after that I’d say 10% more capital would be fine with me,” Dimon added.
David Hollerith is a senior reporter for Yahoo Finance covering banking, crypto, and other areas in finance.
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