Photographer: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg
© 2018 Bloomberg Finance LP
The rally in Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies is for real this time around.
That’s according to Alex Karasulu, Founder / CEO of OptDyn Inc., who sees Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies as alternatives to the US dollar global ecosystem. “The cryptocurrency ecosystem is the primary alternative to the existing fiat currency system with Bitcoin analogous to the US dollar and other altcoins indexed to its value,” says Karasulu.
The reason? The US global ecosystem has become unstable. “The recent bullish uptick was primarily due to the destabilization of the entire sovereign ecosystem whose fiat currencies are all indexed to the US dollar,” adds Karasulu.“The constant news of doom and gloom, of kinetic wars being averted just in the nick of time, more tariffs, and more sanctions threats being levied has markets spooked with many in search of independent alternatives.”
This view is certainly consistent with the price gyrations of major cryptocurrencies in response to trade war news. When the trade war turned worse in early June, for instance, cryptocurrency prices rallied. But they pulled back at the end of June, as the trade war eased.
Still, Karasulu thinks that the instability of the US dollar global ecosystem is here to stay. “We’ve already gone over the psychological tipping point where a large part of the population realizes trade and economic war is now a norm rather than a freak occurrence,” explains Karasulu. “Everyone knows these wars will further destabilize the dollar-dependent global economy which is brittle and sensitive to shock. Many are unconvinced of the so called US economic upturn since the US Federal Reserve is still being pressured to lower interest rates, and the deficit grows while the underlying problems of the 2008 meltdown were never remedied.”
Oliver Gale, CEO of Basetwo and Paymachine, is bullish on Bitcoin this time around, but for different reasons.”Bitcoin has historically seen wildly volatile price spikes of this nature, and there are two key factors to be mindful of: the first is that the lows after these price rallies are higher than the previous lows, and the second is that this new price floor is supported by solid fundamentals,” says Gale.“As an example, the Bitcoin network is the most secure it’s ever been measured in hash rate, there are more active addresses than ever and second layer scaling solutions like the lightning network continue to grow their capacity. If you zoom out these price moves will go down as blips on the chart.”
Not everyone is convinced that things are different for major cryptocurrencies, however. Jesse Cohen, US Markets Analyst at global financial platform Investing.com is one of them. He attributes the recent gyrations in the price of major cryptocurrencies to human nature rather than to some fundamental or technical change.“We’re likely to continue to experience these violent price swings as long as human nature stays the same,” says Cohen. “We get an intense bout of FOMO buying followed by heavy profit-taking. If you can’t handle the Bitcoin rollercoaster then you probably shouldn’t be on the ride.”
In the end, only time will tell who is right and who is wrong.
[Ed. note: Investing in cryptocoins or tokens is highly speculative and the market is largely unregulated. Anyone considering it should be prepared to lose their entire investment. Disclosure: I don’t own any Bitcoin.]